Will COVID cases rise, but Deaths and Hospitalisations reduce?
More people are now vaccinated from the COVID-19 virus.
Almost 25 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have now been given in Australia, with 38.1% of the population now being fully vaccinated.
This includes:
- 44.4% of those over 12 years of age.
- 47.0% of those over 16 years of age.
- 74.1% of those over 70 years of age.
But, the vaccine does NOT stop us getting COVID-19. It might help to reduce the numbers getting it, and it does reduce the effect of the virus, but it does NOT stop us catching and transmitting the virus.
Once some states open up their borders, and reduce their restrictions, the numbers of cases are likely to rise again, and that might scare some people who only think of cases.
But, let’s look at that.
Compare 1 million cases to 1 thousand cases… Which is worse?
If we have 1 million cases, but only 100 in hospital, and just 10 deaths, how would that compare to… 1 thousand cases, but 200 in hospital, and 30 deaths?
It is an extreme example, to show that cases may not be as important as Deaths and Severe Hospitalisation.
The world has recorded 230 million cases, with almost 5 million deaths.
The figures do not show how many had no symptoms from COVID, or how many had severe symptoms, and almost died, and now have LONG-COVID.
The case numbers will become as meaningless as the numbers who get the Flu or the common cold. It will be how many will die or suffer severe illness.
These who suffer in the future could well be the younger generation.
I have been noticing a trend recently. Those that die after having both doses of a vaccine, tend to be elderly and with other health issues. A COVID infection could well advance the death date of someone with cancer etc.
But, the other noticeable thing is those deaths in the younger generation are normally not vaccinated. Recent reports of COVID deaths of those in their 20s, for example, show they were not vaccinated.
In Victoria the other day, it was reported that of the 209 cases in hospital, only 3 of them were fully vaccinated.
Of the 6.7 million population of Victoria, 36% (2,412,000) are fully vaccinated, and 64% (4,288,000) are not.
By pure averages, from those 209 in hospital:
75 people (36%) would be fully vaccinated and
134 people (64%) would not be fully vaccinated.
But the actuals showed only 3 fully vaccinated in hospital with the other 206 not being fully vaccinated.
And of course the vaccine is not 100% guaranteed, so a few deaths will still be expected, even in a healthy fully vaccinated person. But more so in a non-vaccinated person.
A report in August 2021, in the medical journal Nature concludes that Pfizer is around 92% effective at stopping people from developing a high viral load 14 days after the second dose.
This part of the report is interesting to read: The study shows that vaccinated people who become infected with the Delta variant carry high peak levels of virus. “Anyone who thinks that if they get infected having been vaccinated, they can’t transmit — that isn’t likely to be true.”